Posted: 02/07/07

The Naked Oscars
Taking on the Academy Awards

Jon Taylor | managing editor
jtaylor@smcvt.edu

Writer’s note: These predictions were made based on many factors, including odds and other factors I have not seen all of these movies and performances, so I have only selected who I believe will win on Feb. 25.

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Bold font indicates my pick for who will win.

Best Picture

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

I predict a three-way split between Babel (which won the Golden Globe for Best Drama), Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen. Letters From Iwo Jima won’t even register in voters’ minds, seeing as it is a foreign film in an American-made field.

The stellar direction and acting of The Departed should secure it a win in this category, even though director Martin Scorcese is being handed a statuette for directing on a silver platter. Babel or Little Miss Sunshine could potentially land the Oscar, but it should be Scorcese’s year all around.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

There is no question that Forest Whitaker will take the honors in the Best Actor category. He has pretty much swept every other award (including several critics’ group’s awards and a Golden Globe) for his performance of Idi Amin, former Ugandan dictator.

It’s nice to see some fresh blood in the form of Ryan Gosling, the best new actor since Ryan Phillippe burst onto the scene in Cruel Intentions.

DiCaprio’s nominated for the tepid Blood Diamond and not for The Departed? Get out of here.

Peter O’ Toole could win, seeing as he’s the most experienced nominee in the group with 7 previous nominations. Unfortunately, he has yet to put the gold man on his mantle. It’s not going to be any different this year.

Will Smith? Please.

It’s Whitaker all the way.

Best Actress

Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN

Helen Mirren’s just going to win. No one else has a prayer.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED

It’s very likely that anyone in this category could win the supporting actor trophy, seeing as they all put in remarkable performances in their respective films.

The standouts here are Mark Wahlberg and Alan Arkin, who both deserve acclaim for stepping out of their comfort zones and delivering believable characters to audiences.

Unfortunately, Wahlberg won’t win and Arkin’s nuanced turn in Little Miss Sunshine will be overlooked.

Eddie Murphy’s portrayal of James Brown doppelganger James “Thunder” Early is even money for this prize. Giving Murphy the award is totally justifiable, but he did make “The Haunted Mansion,” “Daddy Day Care,” and other studio tripe, so I’m understandably aggravated.

At least Murphy will get to party all night long, if not all the time.

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi – BABEL

Although she’s a former American Idol contestant and this is her first motion picture role, Jennifer Hudson is poised to sweep the Kodak Theater with her fellow nominees.

The Babel women will split their votes, Notes on a Scandal may have had great acting from Judi Dench and Blanchett, but suffered in the story department, and 10-year-old Abigail Breslin is almost too young to win an Oscar.

Breslin might pull off an upset in the vein of Tatum O’ Neal, who at 10 years old, won for her performance in 1973’s Paper Moon. Hudson won the Golden Globe for supporting actress and come February 25, she’ll be clasping the Oscar.